When Does It Matter If a Leader Is Popular?

June 24, 2026 - 05:37

When does a leader's popularity actually matter? In England right now, a strange contrast is playing out. The country's football manager, Gareth Southgate, has faced years of criticism, mockery, and low approval numbers from fans and pundits alike. Yet he remains in his job, likely to lead the national team through another major tournament. Meanwhile, the prime minister, whose approval ratings have also tanked, faces a much more precarious future. One leader is almost certain to outlast the other, despite both being deeply unpopular.

This difference highlights a fundamental truth about leadership. For a political leader, approval ratings are not just a measure of likability. They are a direct signal of political capital. A prime minister with low ratings struggles to pass legislation, faces internal party revolts, and risks losing the next election. Their power is borrowed from public trust, and when that trust evaporates, their ability to govern collapses. The job depends on constant, fragile consent.

For a football manager, the equation is different. Southgate's job security comes from results that are not measured in daily polls. He is judged on tournament performance, player development, and the long-term health of the squad. Fans may boo, and commentators may call for his head, but the Football Association looks at the bigger picture. They see a manager who has reached a World Cup semifinal and a European Championship final. That track record outweighs a dip in popularity.

The lesson is simple. Approval ratings matter most when a leader's survival depends on the whims of a fickle public or a voting electorate. They matter less when the leader's position is protected by a contract, a board of directors, or a track record of concrete achievements. Popularity is a tool, not a foundation. For Southgate, it is a nice bonus. For the prime minister, it is the only thing that keeps the door from slamming shut.